Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Comunian A.;Gaburro R.;Giudici M.
2020
December
Physica D-Nonlinear Phenomena
Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
Published
44 ()
Optional Fields
COVID-19 Inverse problems SIR models
413
© 2020 Elsevier B.V. Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles¿Infected¿Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent in the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a framework of discrete inverse problems, which explicitly considers the role and the relevance of data. Together with a physical vision of the model, the present work addresses numerically the issue of parameters calibration in SIR models, it discusses the uncertainties in the data provided by international authorities, how they influence the reliability of calibrated model parameters and, ultimately, of model predictions.
0167-2789
10.1016/j.physd.2020.132674
Grant Details